Arizona Economic Forecast - Second Quarter 2024 - June 4, 2024The Arizona economy kicked off the new year in solid shape. The labor market has normalized somewhat, with quit and hire rates back to pre-pandemic levels and steady job gains. Even so, the state unemployment rate is near historic lows. Phoenix inflation has moderated and is below the national rate. Real income growth has accelerated but retail plus remote sales have lost momentum. The housing market remains stressed, with rising home prices and elevated mortgage interest rates taking a toll on housing affordability.
The outlook calls for Arizona’s economic growth to slow in 2023 and 2024 but to avoid recession and outpace the nation. However, risks to the baseline forecast remain elevated. Under the pessimistic scenario, the U.S. economy succumbs to shocks originating in the financial sector, as recent bank failures cause much more financial tightening than expected under the baseline. This generates modest job losses in the state, but nothing like the state’s experience during the 2007-2009 period.