MGT253 - Owning and Operating a Small Business

Every year has its economic challenges — some old, some new. But in an election year — where control over Congress and the White House are at stake — policies dealing with inflation, labor disruptions, the rise of artificial intelligence, and other economic issues take on added significance. Below, seven experts affiliated with the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) offer their research-based insights into what’s in store for the U.S. economy in the year ahead.

The economy is losing some of its steam, but could land softly in 2024.

Kicking off the new year, the Kenan Institute is highlighting five issue areas that we think will be top of mind for business leaders and policymakers in the 12 months ahead. Some of these topics entail significant uncertainty – how much the Fed will cut rates, how the election will impact business and consumer attitudes and activity – which challenges any effort at forecasting, yet which also creates opportunities for those who are prepared. To help you navigate the dynamic and often unpredictable economic landscape, we offer solutions-focused analysis of the year’s most salient issues.

It was only one year ago that many economists predicted that a US recession was “certain” in 2023. So today, when nearly every economist is on TV saying a soft landing is guaranteed, it’s time to start doing your own homework. In fact, betting against economists’ predictions can be a smart move. Over the past 60 years, the majority of leading economists (both public and private) have failed to predict every single one of the eight recessions we’ve experienced in the United States.